Will Monsoon Turn Deficient In July, August?

 

It is a well known fact that over 60 per cent of India’s farming activity is purely rain-fed. Timely rainfall, in sufficient volume, is therefore a pre-requisite to a good harvest in large tracts of the country.

 

A good harvest means more produce, and moderate prices for the consumer. It means more revenue to the farmer. It will moderate inflationary trends; it will kick start economy, something which every policy maker is looking at.

 

The accuracy of monsoon predictions hence becomes paramount.

 

The diverging predictions given by Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and India’s lone private weather forecasting company Skymet Weather Services over the quantum of monsoon rainfall this season becomes important in this context.   

 

IMD says the rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2015 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is likely to be deficient and advises Agriculture ministry to keep a contingency plan ready. Skymet predicts a normal rainfall.

 

Incidentally, the official projection of insufficient rainfall in the beginning of the monsoon was proved wrong when the rainfall during June was 20 percent above the projections. IMD says that the monthly rainfall over the country as whole is likely to be 92 per cent during July and 90 per cent during August both with a model error of ± 9 per cent. On the other hand, Skymet claims that they have been some notches better than the official agency in predicting rainfall ever since they began operations three years ago.

 

We will know who fares better this time soon.

 

But for the farmers, and the government, the question should not be about the accuracy level of the predictions of these agencies. They need to be prepared for the worse. For IMD, the Skymet revelations should be a wakeup call. If there is something to be learnt from their young competitor, the official weather forecaster should be open enough to do that.