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Will (Budgetary) Reality Exceed (Market) Expectations ?

This budget is expected to announce long term plans for job creation, pushing ahead with government spends in healthcare, infrastructure, education and social development sectors .

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Its a tough ask for the Honble Finance Minister to meet the expectations from all segments of the citizens, polity colleagues, consumer groups, industry lobbies. Just especially when the Covid stuck economy has taken a beating.

While economists will argue on the shape of the economic recovery, remember that the alphabets mentioned are all English alphabets. However as we see all around the market and the industrial segments, we observe that some segments have shown signs of recovery while some of the sectors are still to show even the early offshoot of growth or recovery. As a non-economist, I wonder if we can use any devnagri script to indicate the economic recovery - as it might truly reflect that the state of economy is not always firm straight lines that most English alphabets have !! 

Capital markets - bubble or basic-strength ?

The past many weeks, the stock markets have rallied up, but for few days of corrections. The jury is still out if some will use the word “correction” or “crash” or “hyped-valuations”. The basic test of these will be the corporate India results over the next 2-3 quarters. For any long term economic development, sustenance of profits and growth is crucial.

Ofcourse on the lighter side, is the red colour of the “khata” bag or even the red colour cover to carry the made-in-India tablet to present the Union budget is making the stock market Bull run ?!!

Budget to signal long term plans for the nation

While the Honble FM is expected to balance multiple expectations in the air, without dropping even one, the speech made by the Honble Prime Minister earlier this week is an indicator. He said that in the previous few months, the Government has announced various policies / plans / stimulus, almost like a series of mini-budgets and the Union budget 2021 would be a continuation of that.

This budget is expected to announce long term plans for job creation, pushing ahead with government spends in healthcare, infrastructure, education and social development sectors. More importantly, there could be reliefs and steps take to increase consumer demand and confidence to make them spend. The other much-awaited question is of disinvestment plans of the government and its stance about PSU banks.

Another few minutes will tell us more ...

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article above are those of the authors' and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of this publishing house. Unless otherwise noted, the author is writing in his/her personal capacity. They are not intended and should not be thought to represent official ideas, attitudes, or policies of any agency or institution.

Srinath Sridharan

Independent markets commentator. Media columnist. Board member. Corporate & Startup Advisor / Mentor. CEO coach. Strategic counsel for 25 years, with leading corporates across diverse sectors including automobile, e-commerce, advertising, consumer and financial services. Works with leaders in enabling transformation of organisations which have complexities of rapid-scale-up, talent-culture conflict, generational-change of promoters / key leadership, M&A cultural issues, issues of business scale & size. Understands & ideates on intersection of BFSI, digital, ‘contextual-finance’, consumer, mobility, GEMZ (Gig Economy, Millennials, gen Z), ESG. Well-versed with contours of governance, board-level strategic expectations, regulations & nuances across BFSI & associated stakeholder value-chain, challenges of organisational redesign and related business, culture & communication imperatives.

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