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Vietnam Records 8% GDP Growth In 2022, Highest Since 1997
However, according to the Asian Development Bank, “Though trade continues to expand, signs suggest that global demand for the country's exports is weakening,”
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Vietnam's GDP increased by 8.02 per cent in 2022, the fastest annual rate since 1997, following strong domestic retail sales and exports.
The reading is higher than the official growth target of 6.0-6.5 per cent and growth of 2.58 per cent last year when Covid-19 lockdowns hampered the economy and hampered factory activity.
The high annual growth rate comes despite concerns about a global recession and its impact on demand for Vietnam's exports, which include textiles, footwear and electronics for well-known international brands.
“The economic performance is noteworthy in the context of global economic and political uncertainty and challenges,” said the General Statistics Office (GSO) in a report.
GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 5.92 per cent, down from 13.71 per cent in the third quarter, according to the GSO.
According to the GSO, exports will increase by 10.6 per cent to USD 371.85 billion in 2022, while retail sales will increase by 19.8 per cent.
While Vietnam “is performing well amid global economic uncertainties,” the Asian Development Bank said in a statement on 14 December. “Though trade continues to expand, signs suggest that global demand for the country's exports is weakening,” it said.
As major trade partners see a slowdown, the ADB forecasts Vietnam's growth to be 6.3 per cent in 2023.
The signs of weakness were already visible in the headline trade data. Exports fell 14 per cent year on year in December, the second consecutive month of decline. During the month, retail sales increased by 17.1 per cent, while credit growth increased by 12.9 per cent.
In December, consumer prices increased by 4.55 per cent over the previous year. Core inflation, which excludes food, fuel, healthcare and education services, accelerated to 4.99 per cent.
According to Bui Thuy Hang, deputy head of the central bank's monetary policy department, Vietnam will struggle to keep inflation under control next year. Consumer prices will rise, with inflation forecast at around 5 per cent in early 2023, higher than the government's full-year target of 4.5 per cent, Hang said on 17 December at an economic forum in Hanoi.