Markets Close On A Happy Note For This Fiscal, Experts Say That Positivity May Continue For A While

March ended on a good note for the Indian share market, as both Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange closed in green on 31 March. The NSE Nifty took a jump of 279.05 points and closed above 17,000 at 17,359.75. The BSE Sensex jumped by a whopping 1,031.43 points and closed at 58,991.52, while the S&P BSE SmallCap gained by 358.29 points and closed at 26,957.01. 

Market experts say this is indeed a positive sign for the new fiscal year starting from 1 April, 2023. Prashanth Tapse, Senior VP (Research), Mehta Equities, “In the recent market sessions, we have witnessed a highly positive close followed by heavy short covering. The IT Index has shown support and has been further supported by the Banking stocks, with a long build-up seen at RIL. The positive take away from these sessions is that the rebound play has been healthy, and we expect the Nifty to clear its 200-DMA at the 17482 mark in Monday's session. Key support is seen at the 17125 mark. Furthermore, the fiscal year has closed with good marks, and the Nifty has shown support at the 17125/16951 levels. Resistance is seen at 17482/17657. The short-term trend is positive, and we may witness a buy-in dips strategy.”

Amol Athawale, Deputy Vice President & Technical Analyst, Kotak Securities said, “Markets saw a perfect ending to FY23 as charged up bulls went berserk on Dalal Street thus propelling both the benchmark indices to close above the psychological mark. The rally was long overdue as fading worries over the recent turmoil in the US and European banking industry prompted investors to latch upon the beaten down stocks.”

He added, “The falling US bond yields and the return of FIIs into the local markets in recent sessions have bolstered the market sentiment. Technically, on daily charts the Nifty has formed a higher bottom formation and on weekly charts it has formed a long bullish candle which is broadly positive. In addition, after a long time the index is trading above the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) level which too is indicating further uptrend from the current levels. For traders, 20-day SMA or 17200 would act as a sacrosanct support zone, and above the same the index could rally till the 200-day SMA or 17450 -17550. However, below the 20-day SMA, uptrend would be vulnerable. Meanwhile, in the Bank Nifty, positive sentiment is likely to continue in the near future and 40200 could be the key support level. Above which, it could rally till the 50-day SMA or 40800. Any further upside could lift the Bank Nifty till 41250.”

Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities said, “Domestic equity markets ended the week on a strong note. For the week, domestic markets closed in the positive territory. Sensex 30 and Nifty 50 index rose more than 2%. BSE Midcap and BSE Small-cap index gained ~ 1-2%. Most of the sectoral indices reported positive gains during the week. However, BSE Power index saw negative returns during the week. Key global equity markets also witnessed a recovery, even though sentiments remained volatile. Euro zone headline inflation slowed to 6.9% in March 2023, down from 8.5% in February 2023. Crude oil prices rose this week from the lows witnessed earlier this month. Markets will continue to focus on inflation numbers across key economies and related Central Bank actions. Domestic markets will keenly watch out for the RBI policy meet scheduled next week. Over the coming weeks, the market will also start focusing on Q4FY23 earnings season.”

Osho Krishan, Sr. Analyst - Technical & Derivative Research, Angel One added to this, “The financial year 2022 adieu on a positive note, wherein the benchmark index finally headway to emerge from the slumber phase on the very last day of the year. Overall, the truncated week was quite challenging as the market initially stayed within a slender range, but the last two sessions were surprisingly buoyant, which levitated the sentiments and led to the hope of revival in the coming period. Amidst all the whipsaw moves throughout the week, the Nifty50 index concluded on a positive note, procuring nearly 2.50 percent from its previous closure and settled a tad above the 17350 level.”

He added, “Technically speaking, the last two trading sessions constitute positive developments and it is highly anticipated to continue the cheerful run in the upcoming financial year. The broad-based buying has levitated market sentiments and can be seen as a sign of progression as we emerged from the slumber phase. As far as levels are concerned, the bullish gap of the 17200-17130 odd zone is expected to cushion any short-term blip, with the sacrosanct support placed around the psychological mark of 17000 for the time being. While on the higher end, a decisive move beyond the bearish gap of 17450-17580 would affirm the trend reversal in the market.”

“Going forward, we remain sanguine with the current momentum and would advocate the traders to utilise the dips to add long positions in the index in the comparable period. Simultaneously, one should stay abreast with global and domestic developments regularly and continue with a buy on decline strategy for the time being. Also, we expect strong moves in the broader market, so one needs to have a stock-centric approach for better trading opportunities.”