India’s Merchandise Exports To Cross $100 Bn Mark In Q3: Exim Bank

Export-Import Bank of India (Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to remain at USD 100.5 billion during the third quarter (October-December) of this fiscal, notwithstanding some y-o-y contraction of 5.9 per cent over the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

India's non-oil exports amount to USD 80.5 billion during the third quarter, contracting by 9.7 per cent over the previous year.

However, the bank cautioned that the country’s exports could be shadowed by deepening global energy crisis, tighter global monetary and financial conditions, continued slowdown in select major trade partners and continued uncertainty around the Russia Ukraine conflict.  

“A negative growth is likely to be witnessed during the first two months of the quarter, however, due to recent domestic policy changes and envisaged improvement in the external environment, there could be a recovery in India’s exports in the coming months,” Exim Bank noted.

Forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports are released by Exim Bank every quarter. The bank has also developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports on a quarterly basis. The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the fourth quarter of FY 2023 (January-March 2023) would be released during the first week of March 2023.