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India's Growth Set To Decline To 6.1% In 2023 From 6.8% In 2022: IMF
For emerging markets and developing economies, growth is projected to rise modestly, from 3.9 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in 2023 and 4.2 per cent in 2024
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As the entire world braces for an economic slowdown and a possible recession, growth in India is set to decline from 6.8 per cent in 2022 to 6.1 per cent in 2023, said International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its January world economic outlook report.
The report, however, stated that India's growth will pick up to 6.8 per cent in 2024, with resilient domestic demand despite external headwinds.
For emerging markets and developing economies, growth is projected to rise modestly, from 3.9 per cent in 2022 to 4.0 per cent in 2023 and 4.2 per cent in 2024, with an upward revision of 0.3 percentage point for 2023 and a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024.
The report mentioned that about half of emerging markets and developing economies have lower growth in 2023 than in 2022.
"Growth in emerging and developing Asia is expected to rise in 2023 and 2024 to 5.3 per cent and 5.2 per cent, respectively, after the deeper-than-expected slowdown in 2022 to 4.3 per cent attributable to China’s economy," it added.
The report stated that China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) slowdown in the fourth quarter of 2022 implies a 0.2 percentage point downgrade for 2022 growth to 3.0 per cent— the first time in more than 40 years with China’s growth below the global average.
"Growth in China is projected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2023, reflecting rapidly improving mobility, and to fall to 4.5 per cent in 2024 before settling at below 4 per cent over the medium term amid declining business dynamism and slow progress on structural reforms," it added
Meanwhile, IMF report mentioned that growth in the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) is similarly projected to slow to 4.3 per cent in 2023 and then pick up to 4.7 per cent in 2024.
Talking about global growth, it is projected to fall from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.9 per cent in 2023, then rise to 3.1 per cent in 2024.
The forecast for 2023 is 0.2 percentage points higher than predicted in the October 2022 world economic outlook (WEO) but below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 per cent.