Despite Global Headwinds, Indian Economy Can Grow At 7% In FY24: RBI Bulletin

Unlike the global economy, India will not slow down and maintain the rate of growth attained in 2022-23, according to an RBI article published on Tuesday.

“We remain optimistic about India, whatever the odds,” said a March issue of the Reserve Bank bulletin piece on the state of the economy.

According to the NSO's end-of-February statistics, the Indian economy is intrinsically better positioned than many other areas of the world to face a challenging year ahead, owing to its demonstrated resilience and reliance on domestic drivers.

Even though global development is expected to slow or even enter a recession in 2023, India has emerged from the pandemic years stronger than previously believed, with a steady gathering of momentum since the second quarter of the current fiscal year, it said.

“Year-on-year growth rates do not reflect this pick-up in pace because they are burdened with statistical base effects and instead suggest to an unsuspecting reader a sequential slowing down through successive quarters of 2022-23,” according to the article.

A team headed by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra wrote the article.

According to the authors, India's real GDP could rise from Rs 159.7 lakh crore in 2022-23 to Rs 170.9 lakh crore in 2023-24, up from the current estimate of Rs 169.7 lakh crore.

“This is straightforward arithmetic, hardly a hurray at half-time. In addition, unlike the global economy, India will sustain the rate of expansion achieved in 2022-23. Regardless of the odds, we remain optimistic about India,” the article stated.

Forecasts of India's real GDP growth for 2023-24, including those of the RBI, currently range between 6 and 6.5 per cent.