GRAIN OF TRUTH: It takes as much as 8 kg of grain to produce 1 kg of meat

This is not a theoretical argument, but one that is actually playing out in India, and elsewhere too. “In China and India, the youth and high-income population is adapting to meat,” says Kalyan Chakravarthy, country head of the food and agriculture division of Yes Bank. “Trends have shown that their consumption has gone up from once a week to three times.” According to the agriculture ministry, meat production in India has been growing at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5 per cent over the past 15 years.

The primary reason is not hard to see: growing wealth. Empirical evidence shows that as income levels go up, there is a proportionate shift from vegetarian food to non-vegetarian. The average Indian responds to prosperity by eating more meat. According to International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), per capita meat consumption in India could reach 18 kg in 2020, compared to 10-12 kg now.

The supply is also very much in place. As per a preliminary census of livestock conducted in 2007, India had a livestock population of 500 million (half the country’s human population) and growing, say agriculture ministry officials. The ministry has set up an internal committee to examine the economics of meat production and its impact on agricultural land.

“Meat production is a strain on land, water and food grains,” says a senior official in the Department of Animal Husbandry, Dairying & Fisheries (DAHDF). However, with increasing commercialisation, the government cannot do much about sensitive issues such as food habits. Chakravarthy says that an analysis done globally indicates that it takes 8 kg of grain to produce 1 kg of red meat. “The pressure on land to produce more grain goes up with commercialisation,” he says.

Globally, especially in developing countries where incomes are rising, the appetite for meat will jump enormously. Demand for meat worldwide is forecast to rise more than 55 per cent between 1997 and 2020, with China alone accounting for more than 40 per cent of this increase, and India, 4 per cent, according to IFPRI.

In the US, 56 million acres of land produce hay for livestock. Only 4 million acres produce vegetables for human consumption, reports the US Department of Commerce. Such inefficient use of land means that food production will not keep up with population growth. “The story will be no different in India as the consumption of meat grows,” says Vijay Sardana, managing director of ARPL Agri Business Services.

Officials in the agriculture ministry argue that India has yet not been directly affected and is unlikely to face such problems, “since there is 70:30 ratio of foliage and grains that forms the animal feed”. That, however, is unlikely to last long, as increasing demand for better quality meat forces producers to increase the proportion of grain in the fodder of livestock.

So, what is the solution? “There is a need to develop more pastures and convert infertile land,” says the DAHDF official. “With better seeds, experiments have yielded better results globally.” According to some estimates, the available fodder can meet the demand of only 40 per cent of livestock. If India does not move quickly to address this issue, it might face the unseemly prospect of fertile agricultural land being increasingly used to produce livestock fodder instead of food grains for human beings.

(Businessworld Issue Dated 4-10 August 2009)