If you’ve read Malcolm Gladwell’s Blink, you might think there’s no need to pick up another book on pretty much the same subject. And you are quite right. But if you’d like to delve deeper into the science behind that sixth sense, read on. “The real question is not if but when can we trust our guts?” and that’s what Gut Feelings answers from a research standpoint.
Gerd Gigerenzer knows his stuff. A psychology professor and director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development, he has spent a lifetime studying the subject. Luckily, the book is a dumbed down version for you and me.
Essentially, gut feelings work because of two components — simple rules of thumb, which, in turn, take advantage of evolved capacities of the brain.
Gut Feelings examines these rules of thumb or ‘heuristics’ and shows how these can be applied to practical situations. For example, is it better to follow the calculated advice provided by an investment expert? Or a simple rule of thumb such as the 1/N rule (allocate your money equally to each of N funds).
A study by Nobel Prize winning economist Harry Markowitz found that no optimal asset allocation policy could outperform the simple 1/N rule. So, the next time you see an analyst with a ‘know it all’ expression nodding at you from the TV screen you can just change channels.
The ‘less is more’ theme dominates the book. ‘Tit for tat’, the author argues, is more effective than the Biblical tenet ‘turn the other cheek’. And here’s a ‘tit for tat’ which Gigerenzer recommends for navigating the minefield of marriage: “Be kind first, keep a memory size of one, and imitate your partner’s last behaviour.” That is easier said than done, of course!
The author explains how collective wisdom emerges from individual ignorance. For example, when a group of lay people were asked to predict the outcome of Wimbledon 2005, they outperformed the experts. The amateurs based their predictions on the ‘recognition heuristic’, that is, whether they had heard of a player or not.
The tendency of people to ‘go with what they know’ is the reason companies spend millions to stick their brand names in our face. But it goes beyond that. The power of recognition is such that the mind is lulled into a false sense of preference. For example, beer drinkers will claim a favourite personal brand “tastes better than others”. Yet blind taste tests show that people are unable to pick out this favourite brand in the absence of a label.
Gigerenzer makes an interesting point about less being more when it comes to healthcare. Doctors, he claims, can improve their decision-making by using a ‘fast and frugal tree’ in emergency situations. However, most continue to over-diagnose and over-treat owing to fear of malpractice suits.
GERD GIGERENZER, is director of the Centre for Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition at the Max Plank Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany. He has won numerous awards, including the AAAS Prize for Behavioural Science Research, and is the author of several books
The final chapters of the book are on weighty subjects such as moral behaviour. The US has a perennial shortage of organ donors while the French have no such problem. Are the French more generous, or more moral? No, the simple explanation is that in France, Austria and Hungary everyone is a potential donor unless they opt out. In the US you have to opt to be a donor.
The author concludes that the “default set by institutions can have considerable impact on economic as well as moral behaviour”. And what would be the link between morality and gut feeling? Moral grammar is also intuitive and follows rules of thumb. After all, God revealed only ten commandments to Moses. Had legal advisers existed back then, imagine how many clauses and amendments they would have added…
It’s wry observations like these that keep you turning the somewhat dense pages. The most interesting anecdote of all is about the fall of the Berlin Wall. Gigerenzer uses the example to make a case for the positive impact of rumour and wishful thinking. However, as any Indian would tell him, that’s also the perfect recipe for starting a riot.
All in all, Gut Feelings is arresting in parts but not memorable as a whole. Skim through, instead of ploughing through every page.
Rashmi Bansal is the editor of JAM, a youth magazine