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Indian Sugar Production To Rebound 25%

Stocks are expected to be more than sufficient to meet India's 3-month consumption requirement prior to the start of next season's harvest

Photo Credit : Reuters

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Global sugar production is set to rebound to 185 million tonnes from 172 million tonnes, according to USDA's forecast report. It is a 13 million tonnes raised of forecast in May.

India's sugar production to rebound by 25 per cent in the projection of the marketing year 2017-18 according to United States global sugar estimation report. Another interesting forecast comes in term of China's falling image as world's largest importer. This time Indonesia is estimated to surpass China by a margin to become world's largest Sugar importer.

Record production in Brazil expected recoveries in output in India and Thailand due to favourable weather, the end of production quotas in the European Union (EU), and area expansion in China are all contributing factors.  The jump in production supports record exports and consumption at 62 million and 174 million tons, respectively.  Ending stocks are forecasted to up by five per cent as higher stocks in the EU and India more than offset lower stocks in China.

Country Wise Production Overview 2017-18
India's production is forecast to rebound by 25 per cent to 27.7 million tons due to higher area and yields in Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, and northern Karnataka.  Imports are forecast lower while consumption is forecast to edge higher and close to the record seen in 2015/16.  Stocks are expected to be more than sufficient to meet India's 3-month consumption requirement prior to the start of next season's harvest.

Brazil’s production may rise 1.1 million tonnes to a record 40.2 million, based on favourable weather, improved crop management, and lower use of the cane for ethanol.

Exports are projected up by 1.1 million tonnes to a record 29.6 million on greater exportable supplies and despite China’s safeguard measure to limit sugar imports from Brazil.  Consumption is up slightly while stocks are flat.

China’s forecast production expected to rise 1.2 million tonnes to 10.5 million, with expanded sugar-beet and sugarcane area.  Ending stocks continue to be drawn down after reaching burdensome levels three years ago.  Lower carrying stocks, higher production, and slightly higher consumption, coupled with a safeguard measure on sugar imports, are all expected to constrain imports (see article below).  

 Pakistan’s production is forecast up 6 percent to a record 6.5 million tons reflecting higher area, favourable weather, and improved yields.  Given the recent enactment of subsidies, exports are now forecast at 500,000 tons.  Consumption is forecast up 300,000 tons with forecast record stocks given the expansion in available supply.

Mexico’s production forecast slightly higher at 6.5 million tons.  However, exports are projected to jump 20 percent to 1.5 million tons with most of the exports going to the United States.  Stocks are lowered 18 percent, in line with higher exports and consumption.

Indonesia to Surpass China as Largest Importer
Since 2011/12, China has been the world’s leading sugar importer, followed by Indonesia and the United States.  Indonesia is expected to surpass China in both 2017/18 and 2016/17 with growing imports from Brazil.  Although Indonesia is forecast to become the world’s largest importer, it is not because of new demand but because China is yielding the spot following its policy changes.


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