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Global Dynamics: Galloping Horses

India’s economy is expected to jump 387 per cent from $9.5 trillion to a massive $46.3 trillion. It will also be the most populous country

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The Standard Chartered Bank predicts that in 2030 seven emerging economies will checkmate several developed countries in PPP terms to earn their rightful place among the top ten economies of the world.

The most spectacular entry is slated to be that of Egypt, the GDP of which is expected to rise by a stupendous 583 per cent in a span of 13 years from $1.2 trillion in 2017 to $8.2 trillion in 2030. No other country in the world will match this bullet train growth, catapulting this developing economy into the seventh spot among the top ten in the world. Economists need to assess such predictions and   whether Egypt has the internal policies in place to register such a robust GDP growth.

India already is the fifth largest economy, but in 2030 it is estimated to take second place after China in PPP terms, says Visual Capitalist. India’s economy is expected  to jump  387 per cent from $9.5 trillion to a massive $46.3 trillion. It will also be the most populous country, attracting global producers to tap its huge market. Make in India obviously, cannot remain a slogan any more, if we are to maximise and optimise our gains from this phenomenon. Make in India must become a household watchword. All industrial, financial, infrastructural, commercial policies must be tailored to meet this objective, or else the icing on the cake will go to the predators...

World hegemon, the United States, will slide to third place by 2030 in PPP terms, its economy growing from $19.4 trillion to $31 trillion, a gain of 60 per cent only. The writing on the wall is clear – sensible, palpable action is required on a sustained basis, to propel its growth indices every year. Resting on past laurels will just not do.

Curiously, the fourth place will go to Indonesia as it is estimated to grow at 216 per cent from $3.2 trillion to $10.1 trillion. Its vast population will act as the growth trigger, along with its progressive policies. The world will watch Indonesia beat all the European giants and Japan and Korea.

Turkey’s economy is expected to shoot up from $ 2.2 trillion to $9.1 trillion, growing by a whopping 314 per cent to propel it to fifth position. India needs to expand its relations with both Indonesia and Turkey for mutual gain as the galloping trio.

Brazil will  not be far behind. Its vast size in terms of land mass and a decent population will inspire it to rise to sixth place. Brazil’s $3.2 trillion economy is likely to grow 169 per cent across 13 years to a size of $8.6 trillion. Russia will follows suit, with its vast array of natural resources. As it begins to tap its Siberian oil and natural gas, Russia will command the eighth place,  its economy growing from $4 trillion to $7.9 trillion. Stable rule and the right growth momentum can take Russia closer to its pre-eminent position.

Japan shows the slowest growth of 33 per cent and yet ekes out its place as the ninth largest economy in PPP terms, expanding from $5.4 trillion to $7.2 trillion. As a nation it has tremendous resilience, but no land to explore and experiment with. The most stable growth will come from EU’s Germany at 64 per cent. It will rise from $4.2 trillion to $6.9 trillion and keep the flag flying for the EU.

The next dozen years are, therefore, going to be game changers for the world. The world status will tilt in favour of hard working, slogging nations, keen to expand and grow.

Disclaimer: The views expressed in the article above are those of the authors' and do not necessarily represent or reflect the views of this publishing house. Unless otherwise noted, the author is writing in his/her personal capacity. They are not intended and should not be thought to represent official ideas, attitudes, or policies of any agency or institution.

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J.K. Dadoo

The author is a retired IAS officer

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